Tyler James Burch

Applying research methods, statistics, machine learning, and Bayesian modeling to solve problems in professional baseball analytics.

Blog

Weather Effects on Boston Marathon Times
How much did the 1976 'Run for the Hoses' actually slow the field?
April 20, 2026
Statistics
▶ March Madness 2026 2 posts
Mar 16 – Mar 16, 2026
Forecasting March Madness 2026 - Latent Skills Models Mar 16 March Madness 2026 — Interactive Forecast Dashboard Mar 16
2024 Rewind: Orthogonal Polynomial Regression in Bambi
A deep dive into what orthogonal polynomials actually do under the hood, contributed to Bambi's examples
February 23, 2026
Statistics
2024 Rewind: Polynomial Regression in Bambi
Overview of polynomial regression using Bambi, through projectile motion and fictitious planets
February 16, 2026
Statistics
linear-term - a TUI for Linear
A terminal user interface for Linear project management
January 26, 2026
Misc
2025 Year in Review
A lightning-round collection of loose threads from 2025
December 31, 2025
Personal
2023 Reading List
Books I read in 2023
December 29, 2023
Personal
2023 NHL Playoff Predictions
Who will win this year's cup?
April 30, 2023
Statistics
2022 Reading List
Books I read in 2022
December 31, 2022
Personal
A hierarchical model for hockey scoring
Just how lucky have the 18-3 Bruins gotten?
November 26, 2022
Statistics
Accessing Public Baseball Data in Julia
Interoperability is the name of the game
January 13, 2022
Baseball
2021 Reading List
Books I read in 2021
December 31, 2021
Personal
Tyler Burch, Baseball Analyst
I got a job!
January 25, 2021
Baseball
2020 Reading List
Books I read in 2020
December 31, 2020
Personal
Box Score Thoughts: Tempering Run Expectations from Hits
Revisiting some old work, and handling some heteroscadasticity
November 13, 2020
Baseball Statistics
Gauging Home-field Advantage in 2020
Using a Bayesian GLM in order to see if a lack of fans translates to a lack of home-field advantage
October 28, 2020
Baseball Statistics
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Golf Percentages
An analytical solution plus some plots in R (yes, you read that right, R)
September 25, 2020
Statistics
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Astrophysical Signals
okay... I made a small mistake
August 21, 2020
Misc
▶ Classifying MLB Hit Outcomes 4 posts
Apr 21 – Jul 25, 2020
Classifying MLB Hit Outcomes - Part 1: Model Selection Apr 21 Classifying MLB Hit Outcomes - Part 2: Optimization May 09 Classifying MLB Hit Outcomes - Part 3: Studying Re-sampling Methods Jul 12 Classifying MLB Hit Outcomes - Part 4: Application and Reflection Jul 25
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Can You Find The Fish In State Names?
Or, 'how I learned the word pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis'
May 22, 2020
Statistics
Dissertation Progress and Defense
Updates on my PhD dissertation progress and defense
April 04, 2020
Physics
Bread!
My bread baking adventures and favorite recipes
April 01, 2020
Personal
Applying to Work in MLB Front Offices - My Experience
A summary of my experience applying to work in MLB Front Offices over the 2019-2020 offseason
January 27, 2020
Baseball
2019 Reading List
Books I read in 2019
December 31, 2019
Personal
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: How Low Can You Roll?
Busting out the trusty random number generator
November 15, 2019
Statistics
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Which Baseball Team Will Win The Riddler Fall Classic?
Revisiting more fake-baseball for 538
September 27, 2019
Statistics
Evaluating Lance Lynn's Unexpected 2019
A deep-dive into Lance Lynn's recent dominance
June 14, 2019
Baseball Statistics
2015-2016 Di-Higgs Combination
Fresh-off-the-press Higgs results!
June 05, 2019
Physics
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Can The Riddler Bros. Beat Joe DiMaggio’s Hitting Streak?
How do theoretical players stack up against Joe Dimaggio?
May 12, 2019
Statistics
Pheno2019 - ATLAS Searches for VH/HH Resonances
I went to Pittsburgh to talk Higgs
May 09, 2019
Physics
Fivethirtyeight Riddler: Can You Turn America’s Pastime Into A Game Of Yahtzee?
If baseball isn't random enough, let's make it into a dice game
March 29, 2019
Statistics
2019 Random Visualizations
Random one-off visualizations from 2019
January 01, 2019
Personal
2018 Reading List
Books I read in 2018
December 31, 2018
Personal
US LHC Users Association 2018 - Why do we care about di-Higgs Production?
Or: how to summarize a PhD's worth of work in 8 minutes
October 26, 2018
Physics
Double Higgs Production at Colliders Workshop - VBF HH Generation and Benchmarks
Double the Higgs, double the fun!
September 07, 2018
Physics
2018 Reddit /r/Baseball Trade Deadline Game Statistics
A data-driven summary of the 2018 Reddit /r/Baseball Trade Deadline Game
July 26, 2018
Misc
Is Tommy Pham Fixed?
A 2017 player analysis of Tommy Pham
July 07, 2017
Baseball